人类活动对浙江近海赤潮发生频率的影响分析

根据1933年到2004年间的统计资料,以10 a为周期分析了浙江沿岸赤潮的发展变化历程,并进一步以1997～2004年的统计资料为基础,采用灰色系统关联分析法研究了的浙江近海赤潮的发生频率和人类活动引起的营养物质输入的关系.结果表明,各相关因子对赤潮发生频率影响的关联序为:海水养殖产量(0.03)＞海水养殖面积(0.99)＞工业废水(0.89)＞生活污水(0.88)＞生活COD(0.79)＞总悬浮颗粒物(0.75)＞工业COD(0.72)＞降雨量(0.71)＞粉尘(0.69)＞烟尘(0.68).可见,赤潮发生与人类活动关系密切,其中海洋养殖自身污染是赤潮发生频率的主要诱因,陆源污染和大气湿沉降起着重要作用.

Influencing analysis of human activities on frequency of red tides (HABs) in Zhejiang Sea Areas

According to the statistical data from 1933 to 2004,the development trend of red tide in Zhejiang sea areas was analyzed in decadal-scale variability.Furthermore,based on the statistical data from 1997 to 2004,the relation between the frequency of red tide in Zhejiang sea areas and nutrients input because of the human activities was analyzed by the grey system theory method.The results showed that the relational coefficient ranked in the following order: Yield of mariculture in Zhejiang Province(0.703) > Areas of mariculture(0.699) > Industrial waste water(0.689) > Non-industrial waste water(0.688) > Non-industrial COD(0.679) > Total suspended particulate matter(TSP)(0.675) > Industrial COD(0.672) > Precipitation(0.671) > Dust particle(0.669) > Smoke particle(0.668).It was obvious that the occurrences of red tide were remarkably related to the human activity,the self-pollution of mariculture and land-based pollutants.Therein the self-pollution of mariculture was the chief inducement,and the input from land contaminations and atmospheric wet deposition played a very important role in the occurrences of red tide.