东海海域石油生产平台溢油风险评价研究

东海海域发生溢油事故将带来严重的环境生态及经济影响，对其进行溢油风险评价具有重要的现实意义。本研究根据东海海域石油生产平台情况，运用层次分析法构建风险评价指标体系，结合模糊综合评价法及蒙特卡洛方法对其进行综合评价。将溢油风险划分为五个等级，（极小，小，中等，大，极大）分别用（1分，2分，3分，4分，5分）代表。研究结果显示:东海海域石油生产平台溢油风险等级在1.59~3.06之间，平均值为2.28，总体风险等级为中等偏低。东海海域石油生产平台溢油风险等级1.59~2.00之间的概率11.37%；风险等级在2.00~2.50之间为69.92%；风险等级在2.50~3.00之间为18.74%；风险等级在3.00以上为0.06%。一级指标地质性溢油风险等级最高，二级指标中平台疲劳老化情况是影响东海海域石油生产平台溢油风险等级的最主要细分因素，敏感度达64.60%。该评价方法对海上平台的整体风险进行科学、合理的评价，以期能够丰富我国的海上石油平台管理决策办法，提供更多的理论依据及技术支持。

Study on oil spill risk assessment of oil production platforms in the East China Sea

The oil spill accident occurred in the East China Sea will have serious impact on environment and economic.It also has great practical significance to evaluate the oil spill risk.According to the current situation of the oil production platforms in the East China Sea, the paper constructs a risk evaluation index system by using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and evaluates the oil spill risk comprehensively with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and Monte Carlo method.Oil spill risk is classified into five grades (minimal, small, medium, large, maximum) represented by (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) respectively.The results show that the oil spill risk level of the oil production platform in the East China Sea is between 1.59~3.06, the average is 2.28, and the overall risk level is medium low.The probability of oil spill risk grade of oil production platform in the East China Sea is 11.37% in the range of 1.59~2.00.The probability of risk rating between 2.00~2.50 is 69.92%.The probability of risk rating between 2.50~3.00 is 18.74%.The probability of risk rating above 3.00 is 0.06%.Among the first class indexes, the geological oil spill takes the biggest risk, and the platform fatigue aging is the most important subdivision factor affecting the oil spill risk grade of oil platforms in the East China Sea, and its sensitivity reached 64.60%.The evaluation method is of scientific significance to the overall risk situation of offshore platform, and the reasonable evaluation can quantitatively evaluate the main influencing factors, in order to enrich the management and decision-making methods for offshore oil platform in China, providing more theoretical basis and technical support.