基于SWAT模型的碧流河流域入海径流模拟研究

利用多源综合数据，建立碧流河流域SWAT（soil and water assessment tool）分布式水文模型，对模型进行了率定验证。结果表明:率定期模型纳什效率系数Ens、决定系数R2及相对偏差PBIAS分别为0.80、0.86、18.9%，模型不确定性P因子、R因子分别为0.78、0.58，验证期Ens、R2及PBIAS值分别为0.87、0.88、1.9%，建立的SWAT模型在碧流河流域中径流模拟总体效果较好，不确定性较小。通过建立流域水文模型，可以解决海洋科研业务工作中监测覆盖的入海河流有限、入海径流量难以获得的问题，为污染物入海通量评估提供高分辨率的流量数据。

Simulation of runoff into the sea from Biliu river basin based on SWAT model

The distributed hydrological model soil and water assessment tool(SWAT) of the Biliu river basin was built by using multi-source comprehensive data, and the model was calibrated and validated.The results show that runoff simulation in the Biliu river basin is mostly effective and the uncertainty of the model is slight supporting by the established SWAT model.In the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(Ens), the determination coefficient(R2) and the relative deviation(PBIAS) are 0.80, 0.86 and 18.9% correspondingly, the model uncertainty P factor and R factor are 0.78 and 0.58 respectively.In the validation period, Ens, R2 and PBIAS value are 0.87, 0.88 and 1.9% respectively.As results, building of the distributed hydrological model can solve the problem of limited monitoring rivers and difficulty of obtaining data of the runoff into the sea in marine scientific research work, so to provide high resolution flow data for assessments.