海上溢油行为与归宿数值预测技术研究进展

近年来，庞大的能源需求促使了我国海上石油运输业和开采业的井喷式发展，也加剧了海上溢油事故的风险。一次严重的溢油事故往往会给海洋环境造成不可逆转的伤害，给经济带来无法估量的损失。因此，开展海上溢油行为与归宿数值预测技术研究是非常有必要的，能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。本文综述了海上溢油行为与归宿数值预测技术的发展过程以及相关研究成果，包括溢油物理扩展模型、溢油漂移与扩散模型、溢油风化模型以及溢油预测模型系统，为未来海上溢油应急响应工作提供理论依据。

Advance research on numerical prediction technology of marine oil spill behavior and fate

In recent years,the huge energy demand prompted a blowout development of marine oil transport and oil production activities in China,but also significantly increased the risk of oil spill accidents.A serious oil spill may bring irreversible harm to the marine environment,and will cause an immeasurable loss of economy.Therefore,it is necessary that the study on numerical prediction technology of marine oil spill behavior and fate and can provide technical support for oil spill response.This paper briefly introduced the development and achievements of the numerical prediction technology of oil spill behavior and fate,including the oil spill spreading model,the oil spill drift and diffusion model,the weathering model and the oil spill prediction model system,which provide the theoretic criterions for the future work on oil spill response.