中国东南沿海邻近海沟潜在海啸危险性研究

针对中国东南沿海邻近海沟潜藏大地震的可能性，采用基于有限体积法的浅水波数值模型GeoClaw分别对琉球海沟和马尼拉海沟潜在9级地震进行海啸数值模拟研究。结果表明，琉球海沟和马尼拉海沟地震发生时都释放了巨大的能量，并以海啸波的形式向中国沿海传播。其中，琉球海沟地震引发的海啸波经东海大陆架传播3 h后到达福建北部，并在随后2 h内对浙江、上海、江苏沿岸地区造成影响。海啸波高普遍达到0.5 m以上，浙江、上海局部海岸地区达到1 m以上。而马尼拉海沟地震海啸传播过程通畅，2 h后到达海南沿岸，并依次影响湛江、澳门、香港、厦门、高雄等沿海区域。海啸波高普遍达到2 m以上，澳门、香港海岸地区达到5 m以上，面临严重危险等级。基于我国东南沿岸港口、核电站、钻井平台等海洋工程项目持续建设的考虑，需要对潜在海啸威胁进行研究并采取相应措施。

Study on the potential tsunami hazard of adjacent trenches in the southeast coast of China

In view of the possibility of a large potential earthquakes in the adjacent trenches along the southeastern coast of China, a numerical simulation of the M_w9.0 earthquake tsunami in both the Ryukyu Trench and Manila Trench is conducted using a shallow water numerical model GeoClaw based on the finite volume method.The results show that both the Ryukyu Trench and Manila Trench released tremendous energy at the time of the earthquake and spread to the coast of China in the form of tsunami waves.Among them, the tsunami triggered by the Ryukyu Trench earthquake reached the northern part of Fujian province three hours after it spread over the East China Sea continental shelf, and affected the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu in the next two hours.The tsunami wave height generally reached above 0.5 m and local coasts of Zhejiang and Shanghai is above 1 m.The Manila trench earthquake and tsunami propagation process was smooth and reached the coast of Hainan two hours later, and in turn affected Zhanjiang, Macao, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Kaohsiung and other coastal areas.The wave height of tsunami generally reached above 2 m, and the coastal areas of Macao and Hong Kong reached more than 5 m, facing serious danger levels.Considering the continuous construction of offshore projects such as ports, nuclear power plants and drilling platforms in the southeast coast of China, it is necessary to study the potential tsunami threats and take corresponding measures.