基于三角模型的烟台市海洋经济脆弱性评价

随着我国海洋发展战略的快速推进，海洋资源耗竭与生态环境问题频发，海洋经济脆弱性日益引人关注。本文基于三角模型，从压力、敏感性和应对性三个方面构建了沿海城市海洋经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系，并以我国最早的沿海开放城市烟台作为研究区域，对其海洋经济系统脆弱性状态与趋势进行评价分析。研究表明:2004-2014年，烟台市海洋经济系统脆弱性状态由中脆弱度下降为低脆弱度，整体来看，海洋经济系统的脆弱性状态不断降低，而未来系统的脆弱性将以敏感性为主导；系统的脆弱性变化趋势由早期的无序发展转向了后期的T5（低脆弱度）方向，中后期系统脆弱性稳定有序降低，表明烟台市海洋经济持续向好发展，已进入良性发展轨道。

Evaluation of marine economic vulnerability in Yantai based on triangular model

With the rapid progress of our national marine development strategy, the exhaustion of marine resources and eco-environmental problems frequently occur, which gets more and more attention on the vulnerability of the marine economy.Based on triangle model, the paper constructs the index system for vulnerability assessment of coastal urban marine economic system on pressure, sensitivity and temporariness, taking the earliest coastal open city of Yantai as the research area, the state and trend of its vulnerability of marine economic system are evaluated and analyzed.The study shows that the state of the vulnerability of marine economic system in Yantai has reduced from medium vulnerability to low vulnerability in 2004-2014.On the whole, the state of the vulnerability of marine economic system in Yantai continues reducing, and the vulnerability of the future system will be leaded by sensitivity.The change of the trend of system vulnerability from unordered development in the early to T5 (low vulnerability) in the later period and the stably and orderly decrease of the trend of system vulnerability in the middle-later period indicate that the marine economy in Yantai has been developing steadily and entering a healthy development track.