日照岚山港对二甲苯泄漏风险分析与海洋环境影响预测

随着国民经济快速发展，我国沿海危险化学品的种类和数量逐年增加，随之而来的危化品泄漏风险日益增大，给海洋生态环境构成了潜在威胁。本文聚焦于我国北方最大的散装危化品集散中心-岚山港，以年吞吐量约占危化品总量41%的对二甲苯作为研究对象，利用危化品输移扩散模型和危化品海洋生物影响评价方法，预测了在三种事故情景下发生最大可信泄漏量对二甲苯泄漏入海事故的海洋环境影响。结果显示，陆上泄漏事故（化工码头操作性事故50 t对二甲苯泄漏或化工品储罐事故800 t对二甲苯泄漏）对二甲苯入海后，其高浓度范围主要集中在港池及港区附近，对附近3个海洋保护区无影响；当船舶在航道上发生2000 t对二甲苯等挥发微溶性化学品泄漏事故时，泄漏到水面的对二甲苯在北风涨落潮流和南偏东南风涨潮流的影响下会全部提前挥发掉而不会对附近的旅游区和海洋保护区产生影响，仅在南偏东南风落潮流的控制下向东北方向快速移动扩散，4 h后会开始影响金乌贼海洋保护区，最大浓度为5 mg/L，但持续时间较短，在泄漏后8 h左右挥发掉。

Risk analysis and marine environment impact prediction of paraxylene leakage in Rizhao Lanshan port

The species and quantities of hazardous chemicals are increasing year by year with the rapid development of national economy in coastal area of China, and the leakage risk of hazardous chemicals is increasing, which pose the potential threat to marine ecological environment.This article focused on the Rizhao Lanshan port, which is the largest bulk hazardous chemicals distribution center, and took the paraxylene that the annual throughput account for approximate 41% of total amount of hazardous chemicals as the research object, then forecasted the marine environmental impact of the accident that paraxylene leaked into sea with the maximum credible quantity in three scenarios.The simulation prediction results showed that the high concentration range of paraxylene was mainly located in the port and near the port area when leakage accidents happened on shore (50 ton paraxylene leakage of operational accident in chemical terminal or 800 ton paraxylene leakage of chemical tank accident), and there was no impact on the three ecological protection zone.When 2, 000 ton paraxylene leakage happened on the channel due to transport ship accident, the leaked paraxylene under the SSE and in the ebb phase would begin to affect the three ecological protection zone located in northeast 4 hours later, and the maximum concentration was 5 mg/L, while all the leaked paraxylene would volatilize 8 hours later, so the impact duration time is very short.However, all the leaked paraxylene under other conditions would evaporate before affecting the three ecological protection zone.