本文数据由安吉竹种园风景区提供生态旅游可持续发展的Butler模型定量分析

生态旅游的可持续发展可用Butler模型定量描述，在理想状态下，生态旅游是一个自稳定系统，旅游人数N的增长具有持续性、快速性和有限性、N的增长不会超过环境容量阈值K。增长速率r和单位时间游人的增长量dN/dt与N存在对称关系。r,dN/dt,N与时间t存在内禀的线性关系。利用上述特征，可以对生态旅游的可持续发展进行评估和预测。本文对安吉竹种园生态旅游可持续发展进行了定量分析，结果表明，1994－1997年，景区游人增长方式与Butler增长模型基本相符。1998－2000年，由于假日旅游和广告效应影响，生态旅游的可持续性受到冲击。若不采取措施限制游人的增长，景区的生态旅游将是不可持续的。

Butler Model Quantitative Analysis on Sustainable Development of Ecotourism

The sustainable development of ecotourism can be quantitatively described with Butler model.Ecotourism is a oneself stable system,and the increase of tourist quantity N posseses continuity,rapid,and limitation,and the increase of N can not overstep environmental capacity K.There is a symmetry relation between increase rate r,increase quantity of unit timedNdt and N.There is a internal linear relation between r,dNdt,N,and time t.The sustainable development of ecotourism can be evaluated and forecasted with thoes characteristics.This paper quantitatively analysed the ecotourism sustainable development of Anjie county bamboo seed landscape area.The result shows that the tourise increase fashion of landscape area basicly coincided Butler increase model during 1994 1997 year.The sustainable of ecotourism was pounded,due to the affect of holiday tourist and advertising effect during 1998 2000 year.The ecotouism of landscape area will not be sustainable,if not adopting measure to confine the increase of quantity of tourise.