首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

江苏省城市生活垃圾清运量的相关因素分析及灰色模型预测
引用本文:张后虎,张治倩,张毅.江苏省城市生活垃圾清运量的相关因素分析及灰色模型预测[J].安全与环境工程,2012,19(1):19-22.
作者姓名:张后虎  张治倩  张毅
作者单位:1. 环保部南京环境科学研究所,南京,210042
2. 环保部南京环境科学研究所,南京210042;河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金,中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项资助项目[环保部南京环境科学研究所重点项目(2010)],江苏省自然科学基金面上项目
摘    要:生活垃圾产生的不确定性和分散性使其清运量符合灰色数据特征,可建立相应的灰色模型进行预测。本文在已知2003—2007年间江苏省城市生活垃圾清运量、城镇人口数量、15~64岁人口比例、人均年可支配收入和消费性支出的基础上,通过灰色关联分析,得出城镇人口数量和15~64岁人口比例为影响江苏省城市生活垃圾清运量的主要因子,并利用灰色系统理论建立了满足精度要求的GM(1,1)预测模型,对2008—2012年的江苏省城市垃圾清运量进行了预测。该预测结果将对近期江苏省城市生活垃圾治理决策的制定具有指导作用。

关 键 词:城市生活垃圾  清运量  影响因素  关联分析  灰色预测模型  江苏省

Analysis of Relevant Factors of the Collected Amount of Municipal Solid Waste in Jiangsu Province and the Gray Model Prediction
ZHANG Hou-hu , ZHANG Zhi-qian , ZHANG Yi.Analysis of Relevant Factors of the Collected Amount of Municipal Solid Waste in Jiangsu Province and the Gray Model Prediction[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2012,19(1):19-22.
Authors:ZHANG Hou-hu  ZHANG Zhi-qian  ZHANG Yi
Institution:1(1.Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Environmental Protection,Nanjing 210042, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resource,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
Abstract:The amount of municipal solid waste(MSW),urban population,the proportion of population between 15 and 64 years,disposable income and consumer spending are analyzed in Jiangsu Province from 2003 to 2007.The results show that the collected amount of MSW is positive,significantly correlated with above-mentioned four influencing factors.The correlation coefficients are all higher than 0.96.Therefore,the dominant influencing factors among these four factors cannot be clearly distinguished.The corresponding dynamic prediction model based on grey model can be established due to the uncertainty and dispersion of the collected amount in line with gray features.It can be concluded that the amount of urban population and the proportion of population between 15 and 64 years are the dominant influencing factors by using the gray model(GM).Based on the collected amount of MSW from 2003 to 2007 in Jiangsu Province,the established GM(1,1) model meets the accuracy requirements by using the theory of gray system.The predictions of collected amount of MSW in the years from 2008 to 2012 should have an important reference value for the recent decision-making for MSW governance in Jiangsu Province.
Keywords:municipal solid waste  collected amount  influencing factor  correlative analysis  gray prediction model  Jiangsu Province
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号