基于云证据理论的地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形安全控制预警决策方法研究

为实现对地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形安全控制的预警,结合工程实践和标准法规构建了包括监测项目和巡视项目共7个指标的评价体系,并将其划分为一般风险、显著风险、高风险和严重风险4个等级;基于监测信息和专家评价值确定指标特征值,采用云模型构建指标基本可信度分配,基于D-S证据理论对指标进行多层融合,利用蒙特卡洛模拟对建筑物变形影响因素进行敏感性分析;以武汉轨道交通7号线土建工程第3标段金银湖村5栋建筑物为例,对地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形的安全警情状态进行评价。评价结果表明:4栋建筑物处于显著风险等级,1栋建筑物为一般风险等级,并结合蒙特卡洛模拟对风险最大的建筑物的监测点的影响因素进行敏感性分析,可为建筑物变形安全控制提供决策建议。

Decision-making Method of Safety Control Warningon Deformation of Adjacent Buildings Induced by Shield Construction of Metro Based on the Cloud Model and D-S Evidence Theory

In order to realize the safety control warning on deformation of adjacent buildings caused by shield construction of metro,this paper establishes a system of seven indexes including monitoring items and touring items,and divides the safety levels of indexes into four grades,namely,general risk,significant risk,high risk and serious risk.Then,the paper determines the value of the indexes by monitoring informa-tion and evaluation values by experts,calculates the basic probability assignment of indexes based on the cloud model,and applies D-S evidence theory for multi-fusion of the indexes.Besides,the paper conducts sensitivity analysis of the deformation of buildings by Monte Carlo simulation.At last,the paper takes five buildings in Jinyinhu New Village neighboring Wuhan metro line 7 as the case study.The results indicate that four buildings are of significant risk level and one building is of general risk level.Besides,combining with Monte Carlo simulation,the paper carries out sensitivity analysis of the building with the largest risk level.The whole evaluation results provide decision-making reference for the deformation safety control andmanagement.