南水北调中线工程水源区的环境评价与预测

南水北调中线工程近期规划是把丹江口水库作为其水源区 ,建成后预计年均从丹江口水库调水将达 14 5× 10 8m3 ,为此大坝将增高 14 .5m。工程对该区域环境影响不可避免 ,因此进行该区域的环境评价和预测是必要的。本文用定性和定量结合的方法 ,分别对该区域水环境、气候和水土流失情况进行了评价和短期预测 ,并得出如下结论 :(1)该区域水环境短期内具有局部改善整体恶化的趋势 ;(2 )气候会向冬暖夏凉逐步转变 ,这种转变对降雨和洪水过程、洪水频率的影响 ,还有待进一步研究 ;(3)水土流失程度会在目前的基础上在库区上游有所降低 ,库区下游加剧。

Environment Assessment and Prediction for the Source Water Area of Mid-route Project of Southern Water to the North

Mid-route project of southern water to north takes Danjiangkou Reservoir as the area of source water. The water supply will be 145,000,000,000 m 3 per year and the dam will be heightened by 14.4 meters. All this will greatly affect the environment of this area. Using qualitative and quantitative methods and taking a careful analysis of the data concerned,this paper draws the following conclusions: 1) In the short term, the tendency will be that the water environment of the area will be locally improved but deteriorated as a whole. 2) The climate will gradually transform to be warm in winter and cold in summer; the effect of the transformation on the rainfall, the flooding process and the flood frequency needs to be further studied. 3) The degree of the loss of water and soil will be aggravated in the lower section of Hanjiang River but improved in the upper.