基于LMDI方法的广东省生活能源消费影响因素分析

运用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)构建广东省生活能源消费的因素分解模型,定量分析2000~2014年间能源结构、人口规模、居住面积和设备消费等因素的变化对生活能源消费的影响。研究发现,4种因素的累计效应均为正,而采用逐年效应角度观察,设备消费是生活能源消费增加的最大拉动因素,其次为居住面积。基于研究结果,提出降低居民生活能源消费的相关政策建议。

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Residential Energy Consumption in Guangdong Province Based on LMDI Method

In this paper, a factor decomposition model of residential energy consumption in Guangdong Province was set up by use of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI) for quantitative analysis of the influences of variation of energy structure, population, floor space and energy demand from appliances on residential energy consumption in Guangdong from 2000 to 2014. The results showed that the accumulated effects of four factors mentioned above were all positive. Energy demand from appliances was found to be the largest contributor of residential energy consumption from the perspective of effect year by year, followed by the floor space. According to the study results, related policy recommendations were put forward for reduction of residential energy consumption.