福建省生态可持续发展历史演变——基于改进生态足迹模型的研究

运用基于能值分析的生态足迹模型,对福建省1995年-2006年生态足迹和生态承载力及相关指标进行计算和分析。实证研究结果表明,1995年-2006年间,福建省人均生态足迹由2.079 hm2/cap增至3.371hm2/cap,年平均增长率达到10.77%;生态承载力由2.280 hm2/cap上升到3.082 hm2/cap,年均增长率6.23%;从2002年起人均生态足迹开始大于人均生态承载力,之后每年出现生态赤字,且赤字逐年增加。期间,福建省万元GDP下降了51.84%;生态多样性指数上升了11.41%;发展能力指数上升了70.30%;生态压力指数由0.934上升到1.094,导致生态安全由稍不安全等级上升到较不安全等级。

A Modified Model of Ecological Footprint Calculation Based on the Theory of Emergy Analysis——Taking Fujian Province as an Example

With the modified ecological footprint and ecological capacity model,we took Fujian Province as an example,studied its ecological resource environmental situation from1995-2006.As a result,During 1995-2006 in Fujian Province,the EF increased form 2.079 hm2/cap to 3.371 hm2/cap with the rate of 10.77% per year;the EC increased form 2.280 hm2/cap to 3.082hm2/cap with the rate of 6.23% per year.The ecological deficit was first exhibited from 2002,and then keeping enlarge yearly.And the ten thousand yuan GDP decresed 51.84%;the ecological variety index increased 11.41%,and the development ability index increased 70.30%.As well as,the ecological safety level increased from slightly insecurity to more insecure status.