江苏省生活污水主要污染物排放预测及控制对策研究

利用2006年-2015年江苏省统计数据,以社会经济指标为自变量、生活污水排放量等主要污染排放指标为因变量,建立因变量与自变量的一元回归分析模型,对"十三五"末生活污水排放情况进行预测。结果表明:"十三五"期间,全省生活污水排放量总体仍呈上升态势,2020年综合预测值较2015年上升16.7%;生活COD排放量、生活氨氮排放量有所下降,2020年综合预测值较2015年分别下降10.4%、7.5%。为切实提升生活污水处理能力,提出了控制对策与建议。

Forecast and Control Measures of Main Pollutant Emissions from Domestic Sewage in Jiangsu Province

Based on the statistical data of Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2015,the independent regression analysis model was established by using the social and economic indicators as the independent variable and the main pollutant discharge index as the dependent variable.The"13th Five-Year"Plan target value of the independent variable was chosen to assign the forecasting model respectively,and the pollution emission was predicted.The results showed that:during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period, the province's sewage discharge will continue to show an overall trend,the comprehensive forecast in 2020 was 4.865 billion t,up 16.7% over 2015; living COD emissions, living ammonia emissions declined by 2020, respectively, compared with 2015 de-creased by 10.4%,7.5%.In order to improve domestic wastewater treatment capacity, control measures and suggestions were proposed.