| 珠三角空气质量数值预报系统的检验与订正研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王开燕,邓涛,邓雪娇,李海洋,祁秀香,林中庆.珠三角空气质量数值预报系统的检验与订正研究[J].环境科学与管理,2017,42(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王开燕 邓涛 邓雪娇 李海洋 祁秀香 林中庆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广州市南沙区气象局,广东 广州,511458;2. 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东 广州,510080 |
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| 基金项目： | 热带基金项目，广东省气象局科学技术研究项目，广州市气象局科技项目，广州市产学研协同创新重大专项，国家重点研发计划项目课题，广东省气象局科技创新团队计划，广州市城市环境气象创新团队 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对珠三角空气质量预报模式的模拟结果进行检验,发现模式预报值整体偏小,特别是峰值,但变化趋势与实测一致,峰值都能较好模拟出.模式对PM10的预报准确率要高于PM2.5,从等级预报来看PM10和PM2.5的二级预报准确率要高于一级,利用MOS方法对模式预报结果进行订正,订正后颗粒物平均偏差都有一定程度的下降,颗粒物等级预报准确率PM10由64.7%提高到77.6%,PM2.5由59.9%提高至74.5%,准确率的提高明显.
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| 关 键 词： | 空气质量 数值预报 检验 MOS订正 |
Verification and Correction of Air Quality Numerical Forecast System in Pearl River Delta |
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| Wang Kaiyan,Deng Tao,Deng Xuejiao,Li Haiyang,Qi Xiuxiang,Lin Zhongqing.Verification and Correction of Air Quality Numerical Forecast System in Pearl River Delta[J].Environmental Science and Management,2017,42(1). |
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| Authors: | Wang Kaiyan Deng Tao Deng Xuejiao Li Haiyang Qi Xiuxiang Lin Zhongqing |
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| Abstract: | The simulation results of air quality forecast model in the Pearl River Delta were carried out, and the results showed that the model was small, especially the peak value, but the change trend was consistent with the measured data. Patterns of PM10 prediction accuracy is higher than that of PM2. 5 , from grade prediction of PM10 and PM2. 5 , level two prediction accuracy rate will be higher than the first level, using MOS method of forecast model results are corrected, the average deviation of the par-ticulate matter have a certain degree of decline, particulate matter levels forecast accurate rate of PM10 increased from 64. 7% to 77. 6%, PM2. 5 from 59. 9% increase to 74. 5%, accuracy improved significantly. |
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| Keywords: | air quality numerical prediction verification MOS correction |
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