兰州市废旧手机产生量预测分析研究

手机普及率日益提高,随之产生的废弃量也日益增多,分别采用时间梯度模型、市场供给A模型、斯坦福(stanford)模型对兰州市2013年-2022年废旧手机的产生量进行了预测.结果显示,不同模型预测结果之间存在较大差异,市场供给A模型和斯坦福(Stanford)模型的预测结果比较接近,均大于时间梯度模型的预测结果,三种模型预测的兰州市2022年废旧手机的产生量分别为40.40万、46.67万和21.04万部.总体上看,兰州市废旧手机的产生量增长趋势较快.

Forecast on Waste Mobile Phone Production in Lanzhou City

The increasing popularity of mobile phones have resulted in an increase in the amount of wastes.This paper uses the time gradient model, market supply model of A and Stanford model to forecast the quantity of Lanzhou city in 2013-2022 years old mobile phone.The results show that there are differences between the different models.The market supply model of A and Stanford is close to the results of the model prediction, prediction results are greater than the time gradient model.For instance, the estimated results are 404 thousand,466 thousand and 210 thousand respectively in 2022.As a whole, the production of waste mobile phones in Lanzhou is increasing year by year.