基于情景信息扩散模型的雾霾社会风险演化仿真研究

雾霾灾害不仅危害公众健康，且风险信息的传播会引发社会次级风险。为了研究社会风险信息的扩散演化趋势，本文构建了雾霾社会风险的情景信息扩散模型。以中国2013年雾霾灾害为例，将风险信息扩散过程分为爆发期、扩散期和稳定期，分析了不同参数条件下的信息扩散规律。结果表明，政府应在风险信息爆发期和扩散期增大官方渠道信息的覆盖范围，尤其在爆发期需对自由渠道发布的信息进行严格监管，在社会风险扩大之前制定应对策略。

Simulation of Social Risk Evolution of HazeHazard Based on Scenario Information Diffusion Model

Haze not only endangered public health but also cause secondary risks.In order to study the evolution trend of so-cial risk information, this paper built a scenario information diffusion model of socialrisk of haze .Takinga haze hazard in 2013 as an example,the haze diffusion process was divided into three different stages separately named outbreak period, diffusion period and plateau period.This paper analyzed the evolution of risk information diffusion under thedifferent parameters.Results showed that the government should increase coverage area of official information in the period of outbreak and diffusion , especially super-vise strictly the information released by free channels, and develop coping strategies before the social riskamplification.