基于生态足迹理论的辽宁省可持续发展动态分析

运用生态足迹方法对辽宁省2000年-2009年生态足迹和生态承载力进行了计算,并对辽宁省可持续发展程度进行了分析和预测。结果表明2000年-2009年期间辽宁省人均生态足迹快速增长,增幅达58.5%;而人均生态承载力基本不变,造成其生态赤字不断加大,涨幅达73.7%,生态系统处于一种不可持续发展状态。在此基础上利用非线性回归预测模型,对辽宁省未来十年的生态赤字进行了预测。并根据辽宁省近年来可持续发展与经济发展状况,提出遏制生态环境恶化、促进区域可持续发展的一些建议。

Dynamic Analysis of Sustainable Development Based on Ecological Footprint in Liaoning Province

The ecological footprint and capacity of Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2009 was calculated by using the ecological footprint method and the sustainable development degree of Liaoning Province was analyzed and predicted.The results showed that the ecological footprint in Liaoning Province grew rapidly,hitting 58.5%.Meanwhile,the per capita ecological capacity was basically unchanged.As a result,the ecological deficit increased continuously to 73.7%.The ecological system development is unsustainable.A non-linear regression model was established to predict the ecological deficit of Liaoning Province in the future 10 years.According to sustainable developments and economic situations of Liaoning Province in recent years,some effective suggestions were put forward to control the environment deterioration and promote regional sustainable development.