多收入阶层CGE模型在能源资源税改革效应分析中的应用研究

开展能源资源税改革效应分析,是评估环境政策改革在环境效益、经济效率和公平效应上是否实现共赢目标的基础工作.通过细分社会核算矩阵中的居民收入组账户,构建面向多收入阶层的CGE模型,有利于量化环境税费领域改革产生的效应.经模拟测算得到,中国能源资源税改革将对GDP、部门总产出和社会总消费等主要宏观经济指标带来负面影响,但均在可接受范围内.微观层面上,居民收入组内的可支配收入和消费支出则受到不同程度的负面影响.

Application of Multi-income CGE Model on Analyzing Effects of Energy Resource Tax Reform in China

The analysis on energy resource tax reform effect is the foundational work to test whether environmental policy re-form can realize the win-win goal in environment benefit, economic efficiency and equality effect.By segregating the residents' accounts to construct the micro SAM matrix, the multi-income groups CGE model has been constructed to obtain the quantitative effects by environmental tax and fee reform.The results of CGE modeling show that:for the impacts on macro-economic perform-ance, resource tax reform will lead to the decreasing of China's GDP, gross industrial output and total society consumption, but all of the decreases are within acceptable degrees respectively; for the influence on micro-economic level, both of income and ex-penditure will drop with different degrees for all resident groups.