半岛型城市PM2.5多情景数值模拟研究

烟台是中国最东部半岛型城市之一,研究应用WRF-CMAQ空气质量模拟系统和排放清单技术,建立以PM2.5质量改善为核心的一次污染物质减排情景和PM2.5浓度下降之间的定量对应关系.分析结果表明,若烟台2020年实现空气质量达标,SO2、NOx、一次PM2.5分别需消减30%、30%和40%以上;一次PM2.5减排控制对PM2.5浓度下降的贡献,是SO2和NOx等常规污染物减排控制效益的8倍左右;如果仅依靠消减SO2和NOx等常规污染物,无法实现PM2.5浓度的大幅度下降.

Simulation of PM2. 5 in Peninsula Urban Cities Under Different Scenarios

Yantai is one of the typical eastern peninsula cities in China. This paper applies WRF-CMAQ air quality simula-tion system and emission inventory technology to establish primary pollutants emission reduction scenario with PM2. 5 quality im-provement at its core. The relationship of PM2. 5 concentration decline was confirmed. It is concluded that concentration of SO2 , NOx and primary PM2. 5 will be reduced by over 30%, 30% and 40% respectively to realize air quality standard by 2020. The contribution to PM2. 5 concentration decreased in primary PM2. 5 emission control is 8 times of SO2 , NOx and others. If only depend on conventional pollutants such as reduce SO2 and NOx , Yantai cannot reduce PM2. 5 concentrations dramatically.