泰州市环境质量与经济的库茨涅兹曲线模拟研究

“环境库茨涅兹曲线”是指经济发展与环境质量之间的“倒U型”曲线关系，即随着经济发展和收入水平的提高，环境质量先恶化后好转。全文基于环境库茨涅兹曲线特征原理，根据泰州市2006年-2015年经济与环境变化的状况，重点分析了泰州市化学需氧量排放量、地表水中高锰酸盐指数、大气污染物二氧化硫排放量、二氧化硫浓度各指标与泰州市经济发展之间的拟合最佳模型。结果表明，前三者与人均GDP的变化规律符合环境库兹涅茨假设。空气中二氧化硫浓度对人均GDP之间的变化规律虽不符合环境库兹涅茨假设，但空气中二氧化硫浓度将呈下降趋势。

Environmental Kuznets Curve between Environment Quality and Economy in Taizhou

The Environmental Kuznets Curve ( EKC) hypothesis, an analogy with the income-inequality relationship postu-lated by Simon Kuznets ( 1955 ) , proposes that is an inverted-U shape relation between environmental quality and economic growth. According to economic and environmental change in Taizhou during 2006-2015, this paper analyses the best fitting mod-el between economic development and various environmental indexes include chemical oxygen demand ( cod) emissions, potassi-um permanganate index in surface water, atmospheric pollutants, sulfur dioxide concentration sulfur dioxide emissions. The re-sults show that the first three and the changing rule of the per capita GDP in line with the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Con-centration of sulfur dioxide in the air between the per capita GDP change law is not conform to the environmental Kuznets hypothe-sis, but the concentration of sulfur dioxide in the air will be a downward trend.