水污染防治领域的技术预见

针对水污染防治领域开展了技术预见研究。通过德尔菲调查法所获数据及其结果分析,确定出排名最高的10项技术课题,作为未来水污染防治领域的关键技术课题,其中共涉及6个领域:城镇污水处理与回用,饮用水净化与安全,工业废水处理与回用,农村、农业污水处理与回用,地下水体污染控制以及微量有毒物质的防控。分析表明,10项关键技术课题的预期实现时间集中在2014年-2018年;领先国家或地区主要是美国、日本和欧盟;发展路径选择最多的是集成创新的方式;技术本身可行性、市场需求、政策支持是最主要的3个制约其发展的因素;目前所处的阶段主要是实际应用阶段。

Technology Foresight for Water Pollution Prevention and Treatment

This paper focuses on exploring the future trend of the technologies on water pollution prevention. Ten key technical subjects on future water pollution prevention are selected as which was indicated from the results and rankings obtained with the Delphi method, including, urban wastewater treatment and recycling, drinking water purification and safety, industrial wastewater disposal and recycling, agricultural wastewater treatment and recycling, groundwater pollution control and prevention, traces of toxic and hazardous substances protection and control. Based on ten key technical subjects, analysis shows that the period to achieve this technical foresight will be in 2014 -2018. USA, Japan and EU are the leading participators on water pollution prevention within these ten key technical subjects. Technological innovation is suggested as the most efficient strategy in solving water pollution problems for China. On the other hand, market demand and environmental policy are two foremost factors that con- strain technological development in this field. The relevant technologies in China are currently mainly on the application phase.