江苏省交通运输业碳排放预测及减排情景分析研究

根据江苏省2005年-2012年交通运输业的碳排放量和碳排放强度,利用GM(1,1)模型预测了2013年-2025年的碳排放,并结合江苏省省情设定了两种碳减排情景.研究表明:2005年-2012年江苏省交通运输业碳排放量一直呈增长趋势;2006 年-2009年碳排放强度一直上升,而2009年-2012年则呈下降趋势.GM(1,1)模型预测结果显示2013年-2025年江苏省交通碳排放量和碳排放强度一直处于上升的状态.而情景分析得出基准情景和低碳情景下的2015年和2025年交通运输业碳排放量都将会大幅减少.

Forecast of Transportation Carbon Emissions and Scenario Analysis in Jiangsu Province

According to calculation on carbon emissions and carbon intensity of Jiangsu Province in the transport sector from 2005 to 2012, this study uses GM(1,1) model to predict the carbon emissions from 2013 to 2025.According to the situation of Jiangsu Province, it sets up two kinds of carbon emission reduction scenarios.The results showed as follows.From 2005 to 2012, transportation carbon emissions has saw an increasing trend.Carbon intensity has increased from 2005 to 2009, while the down-ward trend from 2009 to 2012.The prediction results of GM(1,1) Model shows transportation carbon emissions has been rising in Jiangsu Province from 2013 to 2025, so does carbon intensity.Compared with the GM(1,1) prediction results, scenario analysis results in 2015 and 2025, transportation carbon emissions in the baseline scenario and low-carbon scenarios all will be substan-tially reduced.