Adaptive-filtering of trisomy 21: risk of Down syndrome depends on family size and age of previous child

The neonatal incidence rate of Down syndrome (DS) is well-known to accelerate strongly with maternal age. This non-linearity renders mere accumulation of defects at recombination during prolonged first meiotic prophase implausible as an explanation for DS rate increase with maternal age, but might be anticipated from chromosomal drive (CD) for trisomy 21. Alternatively, as there is selection against genetically disadvantaged embryos, the screening system that eliminates embryos with trisomy 21 might decay with maternal age. In this paper, we provide the first evidence for relaxed filtering stringency (RFS) to represent an adaptive maternal response that could explain accelerating DS rates with maternal age. Using historical data, we show that the proportion of aberrant live births decrease with increased family size in older mothers, that inter-birth intervals are longer before affected neonates than before normal ones, and that primiparae exhibit elevated levels of DS incidence at higher age. These findings are predicted by adaptive RFS but cannot be explained by the currently available alternative non-adaptive hypotheses, including CD. The identification of the relaxation control mechanism and therapeutic restoration of a stringent screen may have considerable medical implications.