Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change |
| |
Authors: | Jiquan Zhou Yi Liu Jining Chen and Fanxian Yu |
| |
Institution: | (1) Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China |
| |
Abstract: | Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In order to quantitatively characterize
the uncertainties of environmental impacts, this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on
land use change, which combines the scenario analysis approach, stochastic simulation technique, and statistics. Dalian city
in China was taken as a case study in the present work. The results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental
pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in 2020. Furthermore, the Biliu River, Fuzhou River, Zhuang River, and
Dasha River have 100% probabilities for NH3-N. NH3-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all rivers. For COD, industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers
except the Zhuang River. For NH3-N, agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River, Yingna River, and Dasha River, sewage for the Fuzhou
River and Zhuang River, and industry for the Dengsha River. This methodology can provide useful information, such as environmental
risk, environmental pressure, and extremely environmental impact, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can
also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning. |
| |
Keywords: | strategic environmental assessment (SEA) uncertainty analysis urban plan land use |
本文献已被 万方数据 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|