黄淮地区冬小麦霜冻灾害风险评估

黄淮地区是我国主要粮食作物冬小麦的主产区,易受霜冻灾害的影响,研究该区的霜冻灾害风险对保障我国粮食安全具有现实意义。结合分区的冬小麦物候期及其霜冻指标,以该地区56个气象站点1951—2005年日最低气温为基础数据,提取霜冻日记录。并基于年霜日数-年减产率曲线,以信息扩散理论为指导,通过IDW插值得到减产率≥10%、2...

Study on Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Frost Damage in Huanghuai Wheat Production Zone

Huanghuai Region is the main production zone of winter wheat,the main food crops in China.It is vulnerable to frost disasters,and studying disaster risk on frost disaster risk in the region has practical significance for the protection of our food security.Combine with winter wheat phenophase partition and the frost indicators,extracted records on frost days based on daily minimum temperature data of 56 weather stations in the region from 1951 to 2005.Get probability disaster maps of ≥ 10%,20%,30%,40%,50% yearly reduction rate of winter wheat frost risk through IDW,based on the yearly frost days-yearly reduction rate curve,according to the information diffusion theory.Frost disaster risk of winter wheat in Huanghuai region is assessed.The main conclusions：（1） With the same disaster intensity,the risk areas were usually connected.（2） With the different disaster intensity,the high risk areas concentrated in two areas： first,northern Shandong and southern Hebei,and second,border region of Shaanxi,Shanxi and Henan.In comparison,probability of risk of low-altitude or low latitude regions was lower.（3） Frost disaster of low intensity generally had high risk probability in the region;as the intensity increases,the probability decreases.As the reduction rate caused by disaster ≥ 40%,probability of risk of most areas was below 0.1;as the reduction rate 50%,probability of most areas was below 0.001.