基于AHP和向量模法的宜昌市水环境承载力研究

基于宜昌市水环境现状,从水资源、水生态、社会经济3个方面考察水环境承载力,构建了宜昌市水环境承载力指标体系,选取对数函数作为单项指标的承载度模型,采用层次分析法计算各个指标的权重,基于统计年鉴资料和当地的发展规划,运用向量模法对2005-2020年的宜昌市水环境承载力进行评价和分析。结果表明,近几年宜昌市水环境整体上处于中等偏上水平,承载力值维持在0.55左右,并且该状态将一直维持到2015年,但伴随着宜昌市社会经济的发展,人口规模的扩张,水资源因子将会是宜昌市水环境承载力的限制因素,可以预知,如果宜昌市保持现有经济结构和发展速度,2020年宜昌市水环境承载力值将有所下降,届时水环境问题势必影响到宜昌市生态环境、社会经济和人民生活。

Analysis on Carrying Capacity of Water Environment in Yichang City Based on AHP and Vector Norm Method

In view of water resource,aquatic ecology and social economy of Yichang City and taking consideration of its status quo of water environment,this paper proposed a carrying capacity index system of the City's water environment,in which the logarithmic function was selected as a carrying degree model for the single indicator and the weight of each of the indicators contributing to their parent indicators were determined using analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Based on the data from the statistic yearbooks and the City's development planning,carrying capacity of its water environment in terms of the period from 2005 to 2020 was evaluated using the vector norm method.Results of the analysis revealed that the carrying capacity could remain its present situation up to the year 2015;however,with continuous expansion of the City's economy and population the water resource would become a limiting factor.Furthermore,carrying capacity of Yichang's water environment could not maintain its present situation in the year 2020,decline of the carrying capacity will certainly occur.