基于灰色关联度的污染物排放主导因素研究——以苏州市为例

应用灰色关联度理论对1991～2007年间影响苏州市工业污染物排放的主导因素进行分析。初步研究结果表明,在分析时段内,规模效应、结构效应以及广义技术效应对苏州工业污染物的排放影响都比较大。对于每一种污染物排放,不同效应影响程度不同。总体上看,分析时段苏州地区工业污染物排放受万元污染物排放系数(技术减排效应)影响最大,GDP总量(规模效应影响)次之,第二产业比例(产业结构效应)最弱。1991～2007经济规模增长对污染增加的贡献十分明显,产业结构调整因素还未产生明显的环境效益。技术进步的作用显著。综合起来,污染排放增加量与GDP增加相比较为缓和。苏州必须充分挖掘技术效应在污染削减中的作用,有效地实施产业结构优化和升级,以确保节能减排任务的实现。

Dominant Factors of Pollutant Emission in Suzhou Based on Grey Correlation Theory

Based on grey correlation theory, the dominant factors of pollutant emissions of Suzhou, Jiangsu Province during 1991-2007 were analyzed. Preliminary results showed that scale effect, composition effect and generalized technique effect have great influence on Suzhou's pollutant emission. For each type of pollutant discharge, the extents of influence of different effects differ. GDP per ten thousands yuan (generalized technique effect) affected the most, total GDP (scale effect) affected less and secondary industrial proportion (composition effect) affected least Economic scale growth between 1991～2007 obviously contributed to the increase in pollution, and influence of industrial structure adjustment over environmental benefits remained unclear. Technology advancement played an important role, which explained why pollution emission increased at a slower rate than GDP. The city must make full use of generalized technique effect in pollution reduction and implement effective industrial structure optimization and upgrading, so as to ensure the target of energy conservation and emission reduction.