最优组合预测模型在城市生活垃圾清运量中的应用

为了比较客观地反映我国城市生活垃圾清运量的发展趋势,在灰色预测、后退法回归和多元回归三种预测方法的基础上提出了我国城市生活垃圾产生量的线性及非线性的最优组合预测模型。文章以我国1998～2006年的城市生活垃圾清运量为基础,通过实例对模型精度进行了分析,结果表明,预测值与实际结果具有良好的一致性,模拟精度达到0.1%,在此基础上对中国城市生活垃圾未来近几年的变化趋势做出预测。

Application of Optimal Combination Forecast Model in Forecasting Delivering Quantity of MSW in China

To objectively reflect the delivering quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) development trend,based on gray prediction,regression and multiple regression backward method,linear and nonlinear optimal combination forecast model for delivering quantity of MSW was established. Based on delivering quantity of MSW in China during 1998～2006,the model accuracy was analyzed through the examples. Results showed that the predicted values and actual results had good uniformity,with the simulation precision of 0.1%. The future trend of delivering quantity of MSW was also forecasted by the method.