洪泽湖区域气候变化与水位的灰色关联度分析

利用泗洪洪泽湖湿地自然保护区1979-2009年逐年逐月平均气温、降水量、蒸发量、湿度和日照一系列气象资料,分析了该地区年和四季的气候特征以及气候变化趋势,并用近年泗洪洪泽湖区域水位的动态数据与气象数据相对变化进行比较处理后,基于MATLAB软件灰色关联度计算的实现,进行水位因子与气象因子的灰色关联度分析,从而得到他们之间的关联度。研究表明:近31年来泗洪洪泽湖湿地自然保护区表现出气温升高、降水量增多、蒸发量减少的暖湿趋势。近年泗洪洪泽湖区域水位的年变化与湿度、降水呈正相关关系,与气温、蒸发量、日照呈负相关关系;水位高低与气候要素中的气温、湿度相关性较大,高达0.997 8、0.946 6;与降水量也有一定的相关性,与蒸发量和日照的相关性较小。

Grey Relativity Analysis of Climate Change and Water Level in Hongze Lake Wetland

Based on data of average temperature,amount of rainfall,evaporation,humidity and sunshine during 1979 to 2009 in Sihong area of Hongze Lake wetland,feature and variation tendency of climate in the area were analyzed.Dynamic data of water level and relative changes of meteorological data in recent years were compared.The interrelation can be found by realization of grey correlation analysis of MATLAB.Results showed that climate in the area features a warm and wet tendency of a rising temperature,an increasing amount of rainfall and a decreasing amount of evaporation in the last 31years.Changes of water level in the area show a positive relation to humidity and rainfall,but a negative relation to temperature,amount of evaporation and sunshine.The height of water level is closely related to temperature and humidity,with index up to 0.9978 and 0.9466.It is also related to the amount of rainfall to some extent,but shows a relatively less relation with the amount of evaporation and sunshine.