大冶湖2000-2009年地表水质评价及污染趋势预测

对大冶湖三部分水体2000-2009年的地表水水质监测数据进行分析,采用水质标识指数法对大冶湖水质进行评价;并依据灰色系统理论,建立灰色预测数学模型,通过已有的监测数据对模型进行精度检验,验证了该模型的准确性及有效性,运用该模型对大冶湖未来5年水质变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:(1)2000-2009年三里七湖,内湖COD、BOD5、NH3-N和TP浓度均超出水质保护标准限值,外湖4项污染指标部分年份超标,其中,三里七湖水质最差,在2004、2005和2008 3个年份实际水质类别为劣Ⅴ类;(2)灰色模型预测结果表明,3个主要水体主要污染物:COD、BOD5、NH3-N和TP浓度基本呈上升趋势,仅三里七湖的TP、BOD5和外湖的NH3-N存在小幅下降。此预测结果对大冶湖水污染控制规划、污染物总量削减及湖泊保护等工作提供依据。

Surface Water Quality Assessment in Period 2000-2009 and Forecasting on Changing Tendency of Pollution in Daye Lake

Water quality identification index was adopted to assess the surface water quality of Daye Lake based on monitoring data of three main water bodies of the Lake during 2000-2009.Grey forecasting mathematical model was established by application of grey systems theory,with accuracy and validity of the model confirmed by the observed monitoring data.The model was applied to forecast the changing tendency of water quality of the Lake in the next five years.Results indicated the concentration of the key pollutants including COD,BOD5,NH3-N and TP all exceed the limit of water quality standard,with water quality of Sanliqi Lake worse than Grade V in 2004,2005 and 2008.COD,BOD5,NH3-N and TP showed an increasing trend basically and only the concentration of TP,BOD5 in Sanliqi Lake and NH3-N concentration in Outer Lake showed a little decreasing trend.Results of forecasting would serve as the reference for the protection of water quality in local lakes.