北湖流域水质改善系统动力学研究

利用系统动力学擅长研究动态、非线性复杂系统的特点,将其应用于北湖水质改善分析,构建了系统动力学-水质耦合模型,可实现长时间序列的连续模拟和水环境管理的情景分析。文章定量分析了三产比例调整、城镇化率提高与污水集中处理等因素对流域纳污控制及水质改善的影响,推演出可协调经济发展-水环境保护-污水治理资金三方矛盾的合理方案,为类似小城镇的发展提供可借鉴的思路和方法。

System Dynamics Analysis for Water Quality Improvement in Beihu Lake Basin

An integrated model which couples system dynamics model with water quality model was developed to analyze water quality improvement in Beihu Lake for long time series simulations of water environmental management scenarios.This article analyzed the effects of adjustment of industrial structure of GDP,increase in rate of urbanization and centralized sewage treatment on water pollution control and water quality improvement.A comprehensive adjustment scheme was proposed and testified by SD-WQ simulation to satisfy economic development,water environment protection and the funds for sewage treatment,which could be valuable to the development of similar small towns.