山东省辖淮河流域河流水质趋势的灰色预测

目前,灰色系统模型越来越多地应用在水质预测中。山东省辖淮河流域包括南四湖流域和沂沭河流域,流域区域内的河流水质不仅与区域的社会经济发展相互联系,而且也影响着南水北调东线的水质。因此,依据2000-2009年流域内河流的国控断面高锰酸钾指数、NH3-N的监测数据资料,在对数据进行处理的基础上,文章利用灰色GM(1,1)模型结合新陈代谢原理预测河流水质的发展趋势。结果表明:大多数河流水质呈好转的趋势,但河流水环境变好趋势较缓慢,特别是沭河高峰头断面的水质呈变差趋势。河流水质的变化趋势应值得高度重视,为区域水环境保护和制定水环境规划提供参考。

Gray Predication on Water Quality Tendency of Rivers in Huaihe Catchment Area of Shandong Province

Gray system model is more and more applied to the prediction of water quality.Huaihe catchment area in Shandong Province including Nansi Lake basin and Yishu River basin,whose water quality of rivers not only relate with development of local society and economy,but affect on water environment along East Line of South-to-North Water Transfer Project.According to monitoring data of potassium permanganate index and NH3-N of state controlled section of the catchment area from 2000 to 2009,and on the basis of data processing,GM(1,1)model was used with metabolic principle to predict water quality trends.Results showed that the trends of quality of the most rivers were becoming improved,but the trends were changing slowly,especially water quality of Gaofengtou Section in Shu River was becoming worse.Trends of river quality should be aroused great attentions,and the study would provide a reference for regional water environment protection and framework of water environment protection plan.