沈阳地区采暖期气候特征与节能预报技术研究

基于沈阳地区1961-2010年逐日平均气温观测数据,采用气候倾向率及度日法,参照采暖供热相关规范,对沈阳地区采暖期气候变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:沈阳地区采暖期平均气温呈上升趋势,采暖期度日呈减少趋势。平均采暖初、终日分别为10月26日、4月3日,平均采暖期长度为160 d。采暖初终日和采暖期长度均存在年际变化振荡,但总体呈现出采暖初日推后,终日提前,采暖期长度缩短的趋势。寒冷程度的减小和寒冷期的缩短使得采暖能源需求量减少,采暖期节能减排空间较大。利用2008-2010年气象-热力数据建立的沈阳地区供热量预报方程及供热气象指数,近3年理论节煤率达9.1%。该预报方程及供暖气象指数已于2010年11月开始在沈阳地区供热作业中投入应用,为实时供热调度提供参考依据。

Climatic Characteristics and Energy-saving Forecasting Techniques of Heating Period in Shenyang Area

Based on the daily average temperature in Shenyang area from 1961 to 2010 and heating specification,the characteristics of climate change of heating period in Shenyang area were analyzed by the degree-days and climate tendency rate method.Results indicated that average temperature showed an increasing trend and degree-days showed a decreasing trend of heating period.The average date of the first day of heating period was October 26,and average date of the last day of heating period was April 3.The average length of heating period was 160 days.Both the first day and the last day of heating period existed interdecadal variability oscillation,as well as the length of heating period.The general trend of heating period was the date of the first day delayed,the date of the last day in advance and length gradually shortened.Due to the reduction of the cold degree and cold period that heating energy demand decreased.There was a great potential in energy conservation of heating period.Based on meteorological and heating data in Shenyang area from 2008-2010,a heating prediction equation and the heating meteorological index were obtained.Nearly three years,the theory coal saving rate is 9.1% by use of the equation.The forecast equation and heating meteorological index had put into practice in the district heating department in Shenyang area since November 2010,it will be helpful for heating dispatching.