| 基于GM(1,1)模型的长沙市生态安全综合评估预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 殷春雪,李锋,钱谊,王洁.基于GM(1,1)模型的长沙市生态安全综合评估预测[J].环境科学与技术,2012(Z1):373-378. |
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| 作者姓名： | 殷春雪 李锋 钱谊 王洁 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京师范大学地理科学学院;中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十一五”科技支撑计划课题(2009BADC2B03);全国生态环境十年变化(2000-2010)遥感调查与评估专项(STSN-12-07) |
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| 摘 要： | 区域资源与城市自然系统是城市社会经济发展的重要基础和载体。城市生态安全评估是对未来的预测,以实现城市的可持续发展。文章以长沙市为例,在城市生态安全主要影响因素识别的基础上,研究了长沙市近11年来生态安全的变化趋势。研究结果表明,1999-2009年间长沙生态安全的趋势由较不安全向较安全状态发展,人文环境响应是长沙生态安全改善的主导因素,筛选出了长沙市生态安全的10个敏感因子,可为长沙生态城市建设提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 生态安全 GM(1 1)模型 PSR模型 长沙 |
Assessment and Forecast for Ecological Security Based on GM(1,1) Method:A Case Study of Changsha City,China |
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| YIN Chun-xue,LI Feng,QIAN Yi,WANG Jie.Assessment and Forecast for Ecological Security Based on GM(1,1) Method:A Case Study of Changsha City,China[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2012(Z1):373-378. |
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| Authors: | YIN Chun-xue LI Feng QIAN Yi WANG Jie |
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| Institution: | 1,2 (1.Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210046,China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China.) |
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| Abstract: | Regional resources and urban natural system are an important carrier and foundation of urban socio-economic development.The important aim of urban ecological security assessment is to forecast the ecological security,thereby contributing to sustainable ecological security management.The potential ecological insecurity factors were identified and the degree of urban ecological security was analyzed from 1999 to 2009 in Changsha,Hunan Province,China.This assessment indicates the trend of the ecological security in Changsha has improved from less security to safety state between1999 and 2009.During this period,the dominant factor is the response of humanistic environment,which is constantly improved.There are 10 sensitive factors of ecology security system be selected.This article can provide references for Changsha eco-city development. |
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| Keywords: | ecological security GM(1 1) method PSR model Changsha |
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