江苏沿海化工快速发展下区域生态风险评价模型研究

区域生态风险评价是区域建立生态风险预警机制,实现有效生态风险管理的基础,而其中区域生态风险评价模型的构建是关键。本研究在分析江苏沿海化工风险源及危害性、风险受体以及风险相应能力的基础上,根据科学性、可操作性、动态性与静态性相结合、定性与定量相结合以及因地制宜的原则,选取代表性强、表征明显、简明且易于统计量化的要素和因子,在传统数学模式的基础上,运用系统动力学、景观生态学以及GIS分析、引入区域化工风险压力、化工园区风险度、区域环境敏感指数等指数,采用Delphi、AHP法构建了包括化工风险压力指数、区域环境状态指数、区域生态风险管理指数的区域化工生态风险的多指标综合评价模型。建立的评价模型为研究区域尺度政策实施的生态风险状态及发展趋势提供了一种思路。

Establishing an regional ecological risk assessment model for Jiangsu coastal areas under rapid chemical industrialization

Regional ecological risk assessment is an important prerequisite for an area to establish and early warning mechanism and enhancing its ecological risk management ability.Of which,the assessment model is pivotal.Based on the analysis of the chemical industrial risk resource,risk receptors and risk response ability of Jiangsu coastal area,we selected some elements and factors which are representative,statistic easily and can be characterization clearly and briefly,according to the principles of scientific,maneuverable,dynamic combine with static and quantitative combine with qualitative. By using the theory of systemic dynamics,landscape ecology and GIS analysis and adopting Delphi and AHP method,we established an integrated regional ecological risk assessment model（including the chemical industrial risk pressure index,regional environmental status index and regional ecological risk management index）,on the basis of the traditional arithmetical model.In this model we introduced chemical industrial risk pressure index,chemical industrial park risk index,regional environmental status index and regional ecological risk management index etc.The model can provide an idea for study the ecological risk status and trend of the policy implement on regional scale