基于VSD模型的经济发达地区生态脆弱性评价——以太湖流域为例

自然与人为双重因素导致的生态脆弱性是研究关注的热点，但是较少有研究定量揭示2种因素共同作用下的生态脆弱区的空间格局，并提出针对性的空间管制措施。本文以经济发达的太湖流域为案例，借助Polsky等人提出的VSD模型，通过暴露度、敏感性和适应能力分解脆弱性，并构建包含自然和人为因素在内的、由10个要素和21个指标组成的指标体系，对太湖流域生态脆弱性进行定量评价，结果表明：（1）暴露度、敏感性、适应能力和生态脆弱性均呈现“东北高、西南低”格局；（2）太湖流域以中低强度的脆弱区为主，不脆弱区、一般脆弱区、较脆弱区、很脆弱区和极脆弱区占比分别为19%、26%、33%、15%和7%；（3）现状建设用地绝大部分分布于相对脆弱的区域内，不同类型建设用地的分布特征存在明显差异，城乡居住用地主要分布于较脆弱区和很脆弱区内，独立工业用地主要分布在较脆弱区、很脆弱区和极脆弱区内，交通用地则主要分布于一般脆弱区和较脆弱区内；（4）原有自然因素导致的脆弱性依然存在，人类活动强度增大已经成为是太湖流域脆弱性的主要诱因，人类活动范围的扩大和强度的增加将会导致脆弱性的进一步增高。结合脆弱性分区及其诱因，对不同类型脆弱区提出了空间开发或生态保护的建议和措施。极脆弱区以疏散人口和产业、强化生态建设为主；很脆弱区和较脆弱区是未来开发建设的重点，要坚持适度开发、生态开发，避免脆弱性提高；一般脆弱区作为区域开敞空间，以农业生产为主，坚持点状开发；不脆弱区以生态建设和环境保护为主，是太湖流域主要的生态服务供应地。

Ecological vulnerability assessment of economic developed region based on VSD model：the case of Taihu basin

The interactive effects of natural and human factors on ecosystem have been focused on by quite a few researchers, especially in more developed regions. However, few researches indicated the spatial distribution of vulnerable zones caused by above factors quantitatively and proposed corresponding measures to control the increasing of vulnerability and promote regional sustainable development. Taking Taihu basin, a more developed region in eastern China, as a case area, assessments on ecological vulnerability were carried out based on VSD model developed by Polsky and his cooperators at 2007. The indices that included three sub objects, ten elements and 21 indicators were put forward accordingly, which were composed by various factors from both natural and human aspects. Results indicated the spatial differentiation of exposure, sensibility and adaptive capacity, and they were all of higher value in northeast part than southwest part of Taihu basin. Moreover, ecological vulnerability was of similar spatial pattern with exposure, sensibility and adaptive capacity. Five kinds of zones with lowest, lower, middle, higher, and highest vulnerability occupied 19%, 26%, 33%, 15% and 7% of the whole area, respectively. Most current construction lands were distributed at vulnerable regions, and four kinds of construction lands in this area were of different spatial pattern. Urban and rural residential lands were mainly distributed at zones with middle and higher vulnerability, and industrial lands were mostly distributed at zones with middle, higher and highest vulnerability. However, transportation lands were mainly distributed at zones with lower and middle vulnerability. There were few mining fields and they were mainly distributed at zones with lower vulnerability. The results also indicated that vulnerable zones caused by natural factors still existed, but human activity has become the major inducing factor for the increasing of vulnerability. Combined with vulnerability assessment and inducing factors, relevant suggestions on how to reduce vulnerability in the process of regional development were proposed. For zones with highest vulnerability, measures on how to evacuate crowded industry and population should be adopted. Zones with higher and middle vulnerability are the priorities for regional development, but future construction should be combined with moderate and ecological means to prevent the increasing of vulnerability. Zones with lower vulnerability should be defined as open spaces, and agricultural productions are their major functions. Zones with lowest are the most important supplying areas of ecosystem services, and eco-environment protection are the main work in the future.