河北省夏玉米气候适宜度及其变化特征分析

采用逐日气象要素和统计方法,建立了河北省夏玉米（Zea Mays）各生育期气候适宜度评价模型,计算了河北省1981—2010年逐年夏玉米各生育期气温、降水、日照、气候适宜度值,并对夏玉米各生育期气候适宜度特征及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：夏玉米生长期间气温适宜度最高,日照次之,降水最低且变异系数最大。气温适宜度以夏玉米灌浆期最低,变异系数最大;日照和降水适宜度均以抽雄期最低且变异系数最大。多年适宜度变化趋势为：全生育期日照适宜度明显下降（下降速率为0.047/10a）;气温适宜度基本持平;降水适宜度波动较大,无明显变化规律。幼苗和灌浆期气候适宜度呈下降趋势（下降速率分别为0.015/10a,0.024/10a）,其中幼苗期气候适宜度下降由期间气温和日照适宜度下降引起;灌浆期气候适宜度下降由日照和降水适宜度下降引起。

Climatic suitability of summer corn and its changes in Hebei province

Based on the daily climatic data and statistics methods,the climatic suitability model for summer corn（Zea Mays） during growing season was established,and its changing characteristics of the climatic suitability was analyzed.The results showed that the precipitation suitability degree was obviously lower than that of sunshine and temperature,and the variation coefficient of precipitation suitability was the largest.The temperature suitability during the grain filling period was the lowest and the variation coefficient was the largest;the sunshine suitability and precipitation suitability during the heading stage were the lowest and their variation coefficients were the largest.For the change tendency of climatic suitability,the sunshine suitability degree of summer corn decreased obviously during growing season（the ratio-0.047/10a）,but the temperature suitability had little variation,and the precipitation suitability had no changing trend from 1981 to 2010.The climate suitability degree decreased at 0.015/10a during the seedling stage which caused by the decline of temperature and sunshine suitability,and the climate suitability degree decreased at 0.024/10a during the grain filling stage which caused by the decline of sunshine and precipitation suitability.