基于自然灾害的北京幅综合生态风险评价

经过20多年的发展,风险源评价从单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体从单一受体发展到多受体,评价尺度也从种群、生态系统扩展到区域和景观水平。但总体说来,对多风险源、多过程的多个生态系统层次的风险评价尚不成熟。运用数字高程模型、干燥度分布图、植被指数、人口密度以及8种自然灾害风险源频率分布图、土地利用图、植被类型图、陆地生态系统生态资产分布图等数据,基于ArcGIS 9.2平台,综合考虑生态的脆弱性,风险源的发生频率,受体的暴露水平、危害程度等,对多风险源、多个生态系统综合的北京幅生态风险进行评价。旨在对区域综合生态风险评价方法进行探讨。评价结果显示：（1）高风险区主要为本区环渤海湾沿岸,包括天津市,河北唐山、沧州,山东滨州、东营、潍坊等沿海地带;以及本图幅西部、北部的太行山地,包括河北省、北京市及图幅西部的山西、河南部分地区;（2）较低生态风险区所占比例较高,达42.55%,可见降低生态风险有很大的潜力;（3）高强度的人类开发,尤其是在滨海地区围海造陆,将会导致沿海地区生态风险更高。

Integrated ecological risk assessment of J-50 based on natural disasters risk source

Ecological risk assessment is a new popular field of regional studies,which originated from toxicology-based human health risk assessment.After 20 years＇ development,it has got a broader concern from one single risk source,single risk receptor and single location to multi-stressors and multi-receptors on a large scale.However it still has not developed a mature methodology to evaluate such integrated ecological risk.This study explores a method to carry out the assessment.Based on the dataset of risk sources,risk receptors and vulnerability,eight natural disasters were chosen as risk sources,and ten ecosystems as risk receptors,while ecological vulnerability and explosion index of each ecosystem were taken into consideration.After the evaluation of ecological risk from each single risk source,a thorough assessment was completed using ArcGIS 9.2,with the results shown in a final assessment map.The results show that：（1） high-risk areas are mainly along the Bohai Bay,including Tianjin city,Tangshan city and Cangzhou city in Hebei province,Binzhou city,Dongying city and Weifang city in Shandong province;as well as the Taihang Mountain areas,which locates in the northwest of the study area;（2） The proportion of lower ecological risk areas is up to 42.55%,which suggests the great potentiality of reducing ecological risk in this area;（3） Strong intensity of human construction activities,especially massive sea reclamation may lead to a higher ecological risk,which calls for more attention.