Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management |
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Authors: | Peter E Robins Alan G Davies Rod Jones |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for Applied Marine Sciences, School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey, LL59 5AB, UK;(2) Marine & Freshwater Science Group, Countryside Council for Wales, Maes Y Ffynnon, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DN, UK |
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Abstract: | This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address
management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment.
The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi
Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further,
a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk
from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios
have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity
change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is
how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical
processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation,
through a modelling approach. |
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