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Quantifying biases in marine-protected-area placement relative to abatable threats
Authors:Caitlin D Kuempel  Kendall R Jones  James EM Watson  Hugh P Possingham
Institution:1. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia;2. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Steele Building, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072 Australia;3. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Steele Building, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072 Australia

Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, NY, U.S.A.;4. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia

ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072 Australia

The Nature Conservancy, South Brisbane, Queensland, 4101 Australia

Abstract:Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a critical defense against biodiversity loss in the world's oceans, but to realize near-term conservation benefits, they must be established where major threats to biodiversity occur and can be mitigated. We quantified the degree to which MPA establishment has targeted stoppable threats (i.e., threats that can be abated through effectively managed MPAs alone) by combining spatially explicit marine biodiversity threat data in 2008 and 2013 and information on the location and potential of MPAs to halt threats. We calculated an impact metric to determine whether countries are protecting proportionally more high- or low-threat ecoregions and compared observed values with random protected-area allocation. We found that protection covered <2% of ecoregions in national waters with high levels of abatable threat in 2013, which is ∼59% less protection in high-threat areas than if MPAs had been placed randomly. Relatively low-threat ecoregions had 6.3 times more strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature categories I–II) than high-threat ecoregions. Thirty-one ecoregions had high levels of stoppable threat but very low protection, which presents opportunities for MPAs to yield more significant near-term conservation benefits. The extent of the global MPA estate has increased, but the establishment of MPAs where they can reduce threats that are driving biodiversity loss is now urgently needed.
Keywords:Aichi Target 11  conservation impact  conservation planning  conservation targets  convention on biological diversity  counterfactual  protected area effectiveness  contrafactual  Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica  efectividad del área protegida  impacto de conservación  Objetivo 11 de Aichi  objetivos de conservación  planeación de la conservación  爱知目标 11  保护规划  保护成效  保护目标  生物多样性公约  违实分析  保护区有效性
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