| 四川盆地农业生态系统害鼠种群测报数学模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 宗浩,蒋光藻.四川盆地农业生态系统害鼠种群测报数学模型的研究[J].应用与环境生物学报,1998,4(3):305-308. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宗浩 蒋光藻 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]四川师范大学 [2]四川省农科院植保所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家九五攻关项目!96-005-01-06-03，四川省教委重点科研课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据四川盆地农业生态系统害鼠种群数量连续3年的统计结果：方差分析证明种群数量在年周期间变化不显著，（F＜F0．05）而年内存在着显著的统计学差异（F＞F0．05）种群数量季节消长呈明显的双峰型模式，年周期内出现6月和11月两个数量高峰，两峰之间无显著性差异（t＜t0．01）．依据农田灭鼠的实际情况，用3月份的数量来预测6月份的种群数量，是理想的预测方案故本文依据该3年的数据，采用数学拟合方法，组建预测6月份数量高峰的短期预测模型．统计检验表明具有准确、可靠和实用的特点．
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| 关 键 词： | 四川盆地 农业生态系统 害鼠 种群动态 预测 数学模型 |
THE MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE PEST POPULATION PRSDICTION IN THEAGRICULTURAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM IN SICHUAN |
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| Abstract: | The pest density of the agricultural system is recorded during the three years in Sichuan, the results show that the fluctuation of the population density in different years is not obvious (the analysis of variance, F < F0.05), but they have a distinctly statistical differance among different months in one year(F >F0.05). The seasonal change of the population density demonstrates the two-peak model. The two peaks occur in Jun. and Nov. and the peak values between them have no evident differance (t < t0.01). Based on the actual condition of the pest control, we use the amount in Mar. to predict the population density in Jun. The mathematical model has have an aecurate reliable character chrough test and verification. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural system pest prediction mathematical model population dynamics |
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