Economic growth,public welfare and sustainability: an empirical system analysis

SUMMARY

This paper explores the relationships between economic activity and sustainability, growth, and welfare. The issues regarding the nature of the relationships were framed by Ekins in questions which are addressed empirically across countries and the states of the US. The sustainability issue is addressed by comparing nonrenewable energy throughput, a surrogate for impacts, to the renewable energy throughput in the associated ecosystem. The effect of a changing energy intensity, in developing and developed countries, on socioeconomic variables provides clues to social welfare. In developing countries a rising energy throughput (economic growth) and energy intensity is positively related to public welfare while impacts are generally moderate. The reverse appears to be true in developed countries, i.e. as energy throughput and intensity rise in developed countries and the US states, pollution and impacts also rise while socioeconomic variables worsen, so public welfare begins to decline. Economic development appears to pass through three phases which can be characterized by the nature and extent of its energy use. Each phase exhibits characteristic energy, pollution, structural and socioeconomic trends.