首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Assessing the past and future distribution and productivity of ponderosa pine in the Pacific Northwest using a process model, 3-PG
Institution:1. CSIRO Forestry and Forest Products, Private Bag 10, Clayton South 3169, Vic., Australia;2. College of Forestry, 326 Richardson Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;3. College of Forestry/College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, 328 Richardson Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;1. School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, P.O. Box 110410, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA;2. Department of Biology, University of Florida, P.O. Box 118525, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA;3. USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Forestry Center, Pineville, LA 71360, USA;1. Dept. of Land, Air, and Water, University of California, Davis, USA;2. Center for Forestry, University of California, Berkeley, USA;3. Dept. of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, University of California, Davis, USA;4. UC Davis Energy Institute, University of California, Davis, USA;1. Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA) and School of Land and Food, Private Bag 98, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia;2. Silviculture Research Institute, Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences, 46 Duc Thang, Bac Tu Liem, Hanoi, Vietnam;3. CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 12, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia;1. Department of Forest Resource Management, 2424 Main Mall, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;2. College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States;1. Department of Forest Engineering, Resources and Management, 269 Peavy Hall, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA;2. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, 180 E. Green St., University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30601, USA;3. School of Forest Resources and Conservation, P.O. Box 110410, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA;4. Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, 319 Cheatham Hall, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA;5. Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, P.O. Box 8008, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
Abstract:Climate variability at decadal scales influences not only the growth of widely distributed species such as Pinus ponderosa, but also can have an effect on the timing and severity of fire and insect outbreaks that may alter species distributions. In this paper, we present a spatial modelling technique to assess the influence of climatic variability on the annual productivity of P. ponderosa in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America over the past 100 years and infer how a sustained change in climate might alter the geographic distribution of this species across defined ecotones. Field observations were used to establish criteria for P. ponderosa dominance including: (1) maximum summer leaf area index (LAI), ranges between 1.5 and 2.5; (2) 80% of available soil water is depleted during summer months; and (3) soil water will return to full capacity at least once during the year. Where these three criteria were not met, eventual replacement of P. ponderosa would be predicted. We utilized a simple physiological model, Physiological Principles for Predicting Growth (3-PG) to predict annual variation in LAI from climatic data provided by the Oregon Climate Service over the period from 1900 to 2000 and from broad scale 0.5°-spatial resolution future climate projections produced by the Hadley Climate Center, UK. From these simulations we produced a series of maps that display predicted shifts of zones where ponderosa pine might be expected to contract or expand its range if modeled climatic conditions at annual and decadal intervals were sustained. From the historical simulations, the most favorable year for pine dominance was 1958 and the least favorable, 1924. The most favorable decade was in the 1900s and the least favorable in the 1930s. The future predictions indicate a reduction in the current range of the P. ponderosa type along the western Cascade Range however, an increase along the east side and inland PNW. The model predicts that pine dominance should increase between 5 and 10% over the next century, mainly in inland Oregon, Idaho, and Washington.
Keywords:
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号