Modeling estuarine-shelf exchanges in a deltaic estuary: Implications for coastal carbon budgets and hypoxia

The export of wetland-derived materials to the coastal ocean (i.e., the “Outwelling” hypothesis) has received considerable attention over the past several decades. While a number of studies have shown that estuaries export appreciable amounts of nutrients and carbon, few studies have attempted to estimate the importance of estuarine sources for the coastal carbon budgets in river-dominated coastal ecosystems. A novel tidal prism model was developed to examine estuarine-shelf exchanges in the Barataria estuary, a deltaic estuary located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This estuary has been the site of a massive wetland loss, and it has been hypothesized that carbon export from the eroding coastal wetlands supports the development of a large hypoxic zone in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. The model results show that the Barataria estuary receives nitrogen through the tidal passes and releases carbon to the coastal ocean. The mean calculated tidal water discharge of 6930 m³ s⁻¹ is equivalent to about 43% of the lower Mississippi River discharge. The annual total organic carbon (TOC) export is 109 million kg, or 57 gC m² yr⁻¹ when prorated to the total water area of the estuary. This carbon export is equivalent to a loss of 0.5 m of wetland soil horizon over an area of 8.4 km², and accounts for about 34% of the observed annual wetland loss in the estuary between 1978 and 2000. Compared to the lower Mississippi River, the Barataria estuary appears to be a very small source of TOC for the northern Gulf of Mexico (2.7% of riverine TOC), and is unlikely to have a significant influence on the development of the Gulf's hypoxia.