能源消费结构和上海大气环境

大量的能源投入是上海经济高速增长的重要因素，在９０年代，这一趋势仍将持续。为深入研究上海经济、能源、大气环境的相互关系，采集了市内７４５个重要企业的能源及经济数据，这些企业在１９８９年的煤炭消费、产值和利税分别占当年全市的７４．６％、６１．９％和７０．７％。把市区划分成８×１４网络进行数据处理和研究，采用分层箱式模型计算不同燃煤条件及气象条件下ＳＯ＿２的浓度分布。研究结果表明，虽然改变上海经济结构，提高第三产业在ＧＮＰ中的比重是防止上海大气环境进一步严重恶化的有效措施。由于上海的经济结构及产业特征，只有改善上海能源消费结构：使用优质油气，减少市内煤炭消耗量；扩大集中供热；大力发展核电才是防止上海大气质量严重恶化的根本措施。

ENERGY CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE AND ATMOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT IN SHANGHAI

In recent years Shanghais economy has been developing in highrate,But the economy growing of Shanghai is supported by the gam ountof energy inpouring and there is no trace which shows it wi be changedin the last decade of this century.Burning of such huge amount of low qua-lity coal results in serious atmosphere pollution in Shanghai.We collected data from 745 enterprises as the base of our model and alayer-grid-box model is used in the study to calculate SO_2 concentration di-stribution in Shanghai.The results show that it is one of the effective waysto prevent atmosphere to be polluted more seriously to rationalize Shanghai'seconmy structure.But the key is to reform the energy resources supply,especially to replace coal with low sulphur content petroleum and naturalgas imported,we could expect in 2000 SO_2 concentration in atmosphere willbe the same level as it was in 1989.