梯级水库群环境风险分析

为提高梯级水库群环境风险管理水平,加强流域生态环境保护,以溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库为研究对象,基于灾害系统理论和系统动力学,对溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库环境风险进行了系统梳理,辨识了梯级水库环境风险承载体、风险源、风险诱因,分析了环境风险传递机理,采用贝叶斯理论进行库区水体藻类爆发概率计算。结果表明:溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库环境风险通过水流、电流、系统动力学流进行传播,并会影响到电站机组和水工建筑物的安全,由于水动力减弱和库区污染物排放,导致库区水体藻类爆发概率为2.42%,死鱼概率为1.21%,在此基础上,绘制环境风险传递拓扑图,并提出相应的环境风险管控措施。

Analysis of Environmental Risks from Cascade Reservoirs

In order to improve the environmental management level and strengthen the ecological protection,the environmental risks of Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs in the downstream of Jinsha River were analyzed.Based on the theories of disaster system and system dynamics,the risk bodies,risk sources and risk inducements of environmental disasters were identified.The transfer mechanism was analyzed and probabilities of algae eruption were calculated with Bayesian theory.The results showed that the environmental risks from Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs can spread through the flow,current and system dynamics,and affect the safety of power station units and hydraulic structures.The probability of algae eruption and dead fish are estimated at 2.42%and 1.21%,respectively,due to the weakening of hydrodynamic forces and the discharge of pollutants.At the end,the transfer topological diagram of environmental risks was drawn down and the control measures were proposed for risk prevention.