Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science |
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Authors: | Patrick Meyfroidt |
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Institution: | 1. F.R.S.-FNRS, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;2. Georges Lemaitre Earth and Climate Research Centre, Earth and Life Institute, Belgium &3. Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium |
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Abstract: | Research into land and social-ecological systems science could benefit from improved clarity in the terminology used for causal analysis and a structured way to make causal inferences. Here I identify two aspects of causality, i.e. causal effects and causal mechanisms, and discuss explanation in historical sciences. I then propose definitions for the major terms used for causal relations, including driver, (spatial) determinant, location and contextual factor, proximate and underlying factors. Finally, I discuss the contribution of various operational approaches, including time series and counterfactual approaches for assessing causal effects and process-tracing approaches for establishing causal mechanisms. Having a coherent concept of causality, agreeing on a precise vocabulary and harnessing our tools with the clear purpose of establishing both causal effects and causal mechanisms should strengthen causal explanations for single cases, for drawing policy-relevant lessons and for theoretical development in relation to land and, more broadly, social-ecological systems processes. |
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Keywords: | land use change theory development and testing spatial determinant causal inference proximate cause underlying driver |
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