TMDL中MOS的定量估算方法及其应用

为了分析TMDL水污染控制管理模式中安全临界值MOS的影响因素,采用FOEA法对MOS中模拟计算的不确定性进行定量估算,通过不同水质达标率条件下MOS的设定,探讨水环境管理中不确定性因素对MOS的影响；将TMDL应用于珠江三角洲佛山水道的水环境管理中,运用动态水环境数学模型、考虑潮周期达标率的环境容量优化模型及遗传算法对TMDL进行求解.研究结果表明,所采用的FOEA法能较为准确地反映模型的不确定性对MOS的影响,而且从水质达标率的角度出发能合理地考察环境管理中的不确定性因素对MOS的影响,为定量化探讨MOS的设定给出了可行的求解思路及方法.

Quantitative Estimation Method of the Margin of Safety（MOS） in the TMDL Development Process and Its Application

First-Order Error Analysis（FOEA） method is applied to quantitatively estimate the error and uncertainties in water-quality simulation for analyzing the influence factors of the Margin of Safety within the TMDL management program.Taking account of the different water quality standards situation,the uncertainty factor influences on MOS in water environmental management are discussed.Then,the TMDL program is applied to river-networks of Guangzhou-Foshan district,which the TMDL calculation methods include dynamic water environment mathematic models,environment capacity optimization models of considering water quality standards in tidal cycle and genetic algorithm.The results show that FOEA method can be practically reflect the uncertainty influence and is rational to survey the uncertainties influence factors on MOS of models from the water quality standards view,and can provide some feasible concepts and methods for quantitatively study MOS.