阿拉木图、乌鲁木齐和伊宁一月份降水对比分析

基于哈萨克斯坦阿拉木图站和新疆乌鲁木齐站、伊宁站的1967-2009年1月份的降水资料，利用一元线性回归法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析的方法，分析了该区域降水的变化特征，结果表明：阿拉木图和伊宁1月份降水变化不明显，呈微弱的下降趋势；乌鲁木齐降水呈显著增加趋势。阿拉木图降水年代际变化不明显，乌鲁木齐于20世纪80年代以前降水偏少，此后降水逐渐增多，伊宁和乌鲁木齐年代际变化相似。阿拉木图1月份降水没有发生突变，在1980年以前存在6—7年的短周期变化，此后存在10—15年的长周期变化。伊宁1月份降水没有发生突变，1980年以前存在6年的短周期变化，此后存在8年和11年的周期变化，变化周期不稳定。乌鲁木齐于1978、1981发生了突变，存在6年左右和12年周期变化。

Contrastive Analysis of Precipitation on January in Almaty,Urumqi and Yining

Based on the precipitation data of January in Almaty station in Kazakhstan, Yining and Urumqi station in Xinjiang during 1967 to 2009, simple linear regression, Mann Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of precipitation of these areas. Results showed that the precipitation changes were not obvious in Almaty and Yining, and there was a weak downward trend. Precipitation of Urumqi significantly in-creased. The interdecadal changes of precipitation were not obvious in Almaty. There was less precipitation in Urumqi before 1980, and gradually increased from then on. Yining was similar to Urumqi. Precipitation of January in Almaty showed no mutation, and there was a short periodic variation of 6 - 7 years before 1980, then a long periodic variation of 10 - 15 years. Precipitation of January in Yining showed no mutation, and there was a short periodic variation of 6 years before 1980, then periodic changes of 8 years and 11 years, and the change cycle was not stable. Precipitation of Urumqi mutated in 1978 and 1981, and there were periodic variations of about 6 years and 12 years.